Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – May 2025

Want to know what's happening to the housing markets around Australia?

Well... this monthly collection of charts from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) paints an interesting picture.

Australia’s outer suburban housing markets have outpaced their inner-city counterparts over the past year, with new Cotality data confirming the nation’s strongest housing conditions are concentrated in the fringes of each capital city.

Cotality's data shows the lower quartile of the housing market has led capital growth over the past 12 months, reflecting heightened demand for more affordable homes as buyers navigate continued serviceability constraints and stretched affordability metrics.

Cotality’s Research Director, Tim Lawless, said that despite broad economic headwinds, strong capital growth has clustered in city outskirts where home values remain “just” within reach for many Australians.

He further said:

“Households are making pragmatic decisions in response to tighter borrowing capacity and higher mortgage costs.”

That’s pushed demand towards the lower quartile of the market, and it’s across the outer suburbs that this value-driven demand is translating into the strongest growth.”

The trend is visible in every capital city.

Mr. Lawless said the latest data underscores a structural shift in buyer behaviour driven by the fact that the median income no longer buys the median home.

He further explained:

“In theory, a household on a median income, with a 20% deposit, would need to dedicate just over half of their gross income to afford a median-priced home.”

“In practice, that’s pushing buyers further out, where homes remain comparatively affordable. The result is that we’re seeing outer suburban markets do much of the heavy lifting in terms of price growth.”

He said this geographic tilt towards the fringe has implications for infrastructure, transport and planning, as populations in these areas grow rapidly off the back of housing demand.

• The total value of Australian residential real estate was $11.3 trillion at the end of April 2025
• Outstanding mortgages against all residential housing are only $2.4 trillion - a very comfortable 21% Loan to Value ratio.
• 55.3% of total Aussie household wealth is held in residential property - one of the many reasons neither the banks, the government nor the RBA wants a property crash.

National dwelling values recorded highest rolling 3-month change

• With three months of consecutive monthly rises, the national Home Value Index has recorded the highest rolling three-month change since September 2024, but still well below the 5-year average of 1.7%/quarter.
• The 3.2% annual change was the lowest since the year ending August 2023. Considering the softening monthly trend through 2024, the annual change is set to reduce further over the coming months.
• The annual change in housing values has continued to favour regional Australia, with regional WA (+13.2%) and regional SA (+12.9%) leading the pace of annual gains.
• However, our property markets are fragmented meaning while many segments are growing, some are languishing.
• And, of course, as a property investor you can always outperform the average.

Our capital city markets are fragmented

Our housing markets are fragmented with each state performing differently depending on local economic and market factors.

At the beginning of this property cycle the upper quartile of the market lead the upswing in 2023, but more recently the lower quartile across every capital city has recorded a stronger outcome for housing values relative to its upper quartile counterpart.

The following chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median-priced properties performing well.

Each State is running its own race

• On the one hand, Perth property values are up 10% over the year and are currently at a new record high.
• On the other hand, although Melbourne property values, are up 0.2% over the last month, they still fell -2.2% over the last year,  and are now -5.4% below the record high, which was in March 2022.

• And in the previous darling of the housing markets, Hobart, house prices are -11.1 % below their record highs recorded in March 2022.

Another star performer was Brisbane where property values increased 7.8% over the last year and are currently at a record high.

Sydney property values underperformed over the past year (+0.9%) and are now -1.1% below the record high which was September 2024.

Here's how the Adelaide property market performed.

The Canberra housing market languished last year.

Similarly, the Darwin housing market underperformed in the last year.

Here's how many properties are for sale at the moment

• The flow of new listings has been mostly tracking below the previous five-year average since late last year, a trend
  that became more evident through April due to seasonal factors including the Easter and ANZAC day long weekends.
• A dent to consumer sentiment could be another factor influencing the softer trend in new listings through the month. As the market moves into winter, the flow of new listings is likely to remain low relative to March levels.
• The problem is that very few are A Grade homes or investment grade properties. Owners of quality properties are holding onto them.
• The number of listings reduced further through April to be more than 12% below five-year average levels but roughly in line with a year ago (-0.5%).
• The shortage of listings is more evident across regional Australia, where stock levels are 16.7% below average, while listings across the combined capitals are 9.4% below the previous five-year average.

Transaction volumes

• Multiple public holidays, ongoing affordability constraints and growing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and the federal election saw sales activity slump in April, with Cotality’s estimated monthly sales count falling to 37,774 nationally, taking the annual count (525,313) to its lowest result in nine months
• Despite this slide, the 12-month estimate of national sales remains 2.7% above the levels seen this time last year and 3.0% above the previous five-year average.

It's taking longer to sell a home

• Despite the slowdown in sales activity, selling times are once again falling, with the national median time on market
  dropping from a recent high of 36 days over the three months to February to 33 days over the three months to April.
• Across the capitals, Darwin, Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra recorded the steepest declines compared to the three
  months to February, down -13, -11, -10 and -8 days, respectively.

Vendor Discounting

• Vendor discounting rates continued to tighten, with the three-month national median compressing from 3.6% in the three months to January to -3.5% over the three months to April.
• Sellers in the combined regions are negotiating more than their capital city counterparts, with a median discounting rate of -3.7%, while capital city vendors are offering a smaller -3.2% discount in order to secure a sale.

Capital city clearance rates have trended lower

• Multiple long weekends and uncertainty around US tariffs and the federal election saw auction activity dip and capital city clearance rates slide in April.
• Over the week ending 27th April, the capitals' hosted the quietest post easter auction week since 2019, with just 1,076 homes auctioned, while the average combined capital clearance rate fell from 62.0% over the four weeks to March 30th to 60.0%.
• We update the weekly auction clearance results here each week.

We're still experiencing a rental market crisis in Australia

• The annual pace of rental growth has eased to its slowest rate since the 12 months to March 2021, with national rental values up 3.6%.
• Perth (5.7%), Melbourne (2.0%), Sydney (1.9%), Adelaide (5.5%) and Brisbane (3.3%) have all seen a marked decline in the annual rate of rent growth compared to this time last year, while Hobart (5.4%) and Darwin (5.0%) have seen rents gain momentum.

• Gross rental yields have held reasonably firm since early 2023 after a substantial rise from the pandemic lows, where the national gross rental yield bottomed out at 3.2%.
• Nationally, gross yields are slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels (3.70% in Feb 2020) and the decade average (also 3.70%).
• Across the capitals there is significant diversity in gross yield profiles, ranging from 6.6% in Darwin to 3.1% in Sydney.

Dwelling approvals and housing credit

• Monthly dwelling approvals have trended higher from a low mid-2024 trough to be 13.4% higher compared to March last year.
• A 49.7% jump in unit approvals has been the primary driver of the upswing, while an earlier rise in house approvals
  has steadied since November last year.
• Over the past six months, the monthly number of dwelling approvals has averaged about 15,900, well below the 20,000 per month needed to achieve the Housing Accord target of 1.2m homes in five years.

Finance and Lending

• The total value of new home loan commitments rose 1.4% in the December quarter to $87.2 billion.
• The increase was led by owner-occupiers, with first-home buyer commitments up 1.5% and subsequent owner-occupier loans up 3.5% over the quarter.
• Meanwhile, the quarterly value of investor lending fell -2.9% over Q4 but remained 22.2% above the levels seen this time last year.

• The value of first home buyer finance rose 1.5% over the December quarter of 2024 to $16 billion.
• As a portion of new owner-occupier lending, first home buyers comprised 29.2% in Q4, down from a recent peak of 31.3% in Q2 2024 but above the historic decade average of 26.8%.

Source of charts: CoreLogic Chart Pack, May 2025.

• Also read:This week’s Australian Property Market Update – Latest Data, State by State May 13th 2025
• Also read:Brisbane Property Market Forecast [2025] – What’s Ahead & Where to Invest
• Also read:Melbourne property market forecast for 2025 | Is it a good time to invest in Melbourne?
• Also read:Latest property price forecasts for 2025 revealed. What’s ahead in our housing markets in the next year or two?
• Also read:Sydney property market forecast for 2025. Is it a good time to invest in Sydney?